PARIS – 18 MARCH 2014 – Euler Hermes, the global leader in trade credit insurance, has published its latest Global Sector Outlook: “All things come to those who wait”. It reports that sector risks globally are better oriented since mid-2013 but that the anticipated 2014-2015 global economic recovery will be too modest and heterogeneous to fully benefit a majority of sectors all around the world.
“It will take some time for the global economic growth to feed through to the bottom lines of companies of all sizes and sectors, especially in still-fragile Europe,” explained Ludovic Subran, chief economist, Euler Hermes. “In many sectors we do not foresee an accelerating recovery path in 2014.”
Euler Hermes monitors sector risks for 17 industries in 72 countries, representing 95% of worldwide GDP. Sector ratings (low, medium, sensitive and high risk) are established for each country and aggregate proprietary forecasts in demand, financing, profitability and the business environment.
Global recovery not yet sufficient to fully benefit a majority of sectors worldwide
In 9 out of 10 cases, sector risks by country remain at 2013 levels. Overall, sectors rated “at risk” remain in the majority for 2014: 49% at medium risk and approximately 25% at sensitive or high risk. In other words, only 25% of sectors exhibit sound enough fundamentals or outlooks to begin 2014 with a low level of risk.
On a global scale, textile, construction and air transport sectors began 2014 with the highest level of risk, while chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agrifood kept their risk levels lowest.
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